The DON

[Brad225]

Living in AZ may have an impact on the numbers you believe are representative of the country.
I live in TN and I promise you that this is GOP country and Trump won big here.

However I've lived and visited many other parts of this country that are wired very differently.

Here's the problem. If we didn't have immigrants legal and otherwise our country's population would be shrinking. As a result there would be less people to buy things and our GDP would be lower.

Almost every penny that you give to a poor person gets spent.
While the vast majority of wealthy people when given a tax break just save more money. Contrary to popular belief they don't grow more jobs with that extra money.

It doesn't matter who is elected. The middle class is going away. There is nothing anyone can do to stop that. There is demand for the people at the top to make decisions and to run the complex systems that automate white collar and blue collar work, so this group continues to earn more and more money. Any position that paid a good wage that can be automated will be automated.

People are ****ed off, but these trends are world wide. Unless we roll back technology these changes will continue.

Manufacturing in the US has been on an upswing for a while now so offshoring is becoming less of a big deal. The problem is that manufacturing requires far fewer workers than it used to.

There is nothing that Trump can actually do to change any of this. None of his proposals will have the least bit of impact.
Trump's rallying cry has become a last act of defiance for a bunch of ****ed of people who want to wave a middle finger at the government. But the government has nothing to do with this. We are at the mercy of large corporations who are driving almost everything these days.

In another 15 years we are predicted to have AT LEAST 25% unemployment because there will not be enough jobs that need to be done due to automation. Unless there is wealth redistribution, people will not be able to buy things that keep our economy going and our economy will collapse.

Things are getting ready to change in a big way and people hate change and want to turn the clocks back. However if we did try to undo technology to make things less efficient to keep more people employed we would just fall behind the rest of the world even more.

The liberals want to let virtually anyone that can cross the border stay, work and be provided social services. At the same time complaining that there are to many low paying jobs. As long as you keep supplying both liberal and conservative business/industry with people that will work for less, that situation will never change. It is like throwing fuel on a fire and wondering why it is not going out.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

The liberals want to let virtually anyone that can cross the border stay, work and be provided social services. At the same time complaining that there are to many low paying jobs. As long as you keep supplying both liberal and conservative business/industry with people that will work for less, that situation will never change. It is like throwing fuel on a fire and wondering why it is not going out.

What you say has some logic to it, unfortunately the bottom end isn't driving the middle class down. Statistically across the country even in states that are almost entirely white this problem exists. The issue is not that the people who were earning a solid middle class income suddenly had their incomes drop because of immigrants. The issue is that the person earning a solid middle class income is still doing that job but is now working more hours and losing benefits, meanwhile a bunch of his coworkers are layed off because their work was automated. So now those coworkers who were previously earning good money are now competing for lower income jobs because there are less jobs at the income they used to make.

The problem is that we have a lot of unemployed people who were in the middle class automated out of a job now competing for lower wage jobs. Their income didn't drop because of immigrants willing to work cheaper. They lost their jobs because a computer that works much cheaper is doing their job. Now they make less money because they had to take a lower paying job. So we have a pile of people "over qualified" for their current jobs, but those qualifications are no longer in demand.

Because of this automation there is very little job security anywhere. People who provide a valuable service one day find out that the entire process they have been handling for the last ten years is now a mobile app that people can do on a smart phone.

Ouch! A bit more perspective on how the world sees Trump.

"Donald Trump winning the US presidency is considered one of the top 10 risks facing the world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit"
The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".

 

[timm]

Mark....

I would say automation is not the BIG issue in regards to jobs.... Trade is..... Lets say 'middle class' is 50-70K per year...... Well that is what a factory guy used to make with his overtime etc..... Now a lot of those jobs have gone south of the border....or to china.... or india.... or wherever.... at obvious lower wages....... Companies now use that as the 'bar'..... In other words - if I can get it that cheap there... lets force the hand of the workers here to take less - or we push it back over.... This is essentially Trump's message (if you can get thru all of the noise) which people are eating up.... The middle class - or ex-middle class is eating it up..... This is why the experience of prior historical elections and predictions going forward - many feel - Is not necessarily in play.... Trump is saying - 'I'm going to get your jobs back.... and I'm going to get them back by making this a level playing field and using our consumerism as a bargaining chip'.... Plain and simple...

Now can trump make it thru all of the negative campaign ads (and I mean that very loosely) from CNN.... The 'Economist Intelligence Unit' (what the hell is that???) .... the republicans that are currently getting their a$$ handed to them......oh.... yes ... I forgot the Democrats.... LOL... Last night - CNN played a 'documentary' which was a negative campaign ad - essentially - against Goldwater - and how he was essentially going to go Nuke on everyone..... and then CNN compares it to Trump.... I mean they have a library of negative examples to pull from.... and I am sure over the next 7 months the public will be barraged with the ....uh.....'truth'????

I am interested in looking at the vote count in dem primaries and rep primaries.... It does appear as if the reps are pulling in a lot more votes - not in all states (Illinois comes to mind) ... but in many.... and in fact trump is getting more votes in a 4 man race than Hillary gets in a two 'man' race.... Just some thoughts there....

 

[RCHeliGuy]

Mark....

I would say automation is not the BIG issue in regards to jobs.... Trade is..... Lets say 'middle class' is 50-70K per year...... Well that is what a factory guy used to make with his overtime etc..... Now a lot of those jobs have gone south of the border....or to china.... or india.... or wherever.... at obvious lower wages....... Companies now use that as the 'bar'..... In other words - if I can get it that cheap there... lets force the hand of the workers here to take less - or we push it back over.... This is essentially Trump's message (if you can get thru all of the noise) which people are eating up.... The middle class - or ex-middle class is eating it up..... This is why the experience of prior historical elections and predictions going forward - many feel - Is not necessarily in play.... Trump is saying - 'I'm going to get your jobs back.... and I'm going to get them back by making this a level playing field and using our consumerism as a bargaining chip'.... Plain and simple...

Now can trump make it thru all of the negative campaign ads (and I mean that very loosely) from CNN.... The 'Economist Intelligence Unit' (what the hell is that???) .... the republicans that are currently getting their a$$ handed to them......oh.... yes ... I forgot the Democrats.... LOL... Last night - CNN played a 'documentary' which was a negative campaign ad - essentially - against Goldwater - and how he was essentially going to go Nuke on everyone..... and then CNN compares it to Trump.... I mean they have a library of negative examples to pull from.... and I am sure over the next 7 months the public will be barraged with the ....uh.....'truth'????

I am interested in looking at the vote count in dem primaries and rep primaries.... It does appear as if the reps are pulling in a lot more votes - not in all states (Illinois comes to mind) ... but in many.... and in fact trump is getting more votes in a 4 man race than Hillary gets in a two 'man' race.... Just some thoughts there....

You missed the point that manufacturing has been steadily returning to the United States. It's called re-shoring vs. offshoring.
So believe it or not we have more manufacturing coming back than leaving now.

Let's use Nike as an example. They went to China for lower costs, then they went to Taiwan for the same reason. Then they automated the crap out of their assembly process such that labor costs were so small that shipping became more of an issue. So guess what? Nike is bringing manufacturing back to the US now, but the manufacturing center will hire a "tiny" number of people compared to what they employed when they were here last.

Automation is HUGE. It's what I do for a living. I once automated a division of 50 people down to 2. The automated system ran much faster and made them more money. That system broke even in 9 months and then added to their bottom line going forward. These were college educated white collar workers. Automation of office staff and happening just as fast as robotics on assembly lines. Here's the kicker. It took me 4 months from initial requirements gathering to go live to do that. I had a part time business analyst on the project and some help from the IT guys setting up the servers, but otherwise it was just me and 4 months of development time to replace 48 people.

Automation has cost China 29 Million jobs over the last 5 years.

 

[timm]

You missed the point that manufacturing has been steadily returning to the United States. It's called re-shoring vs. offshoring.
So believe it or not we have more manufacturing coming back than leaving now.

Let's use Nike as an example. They went to China for lower costs, then they went to Taiwan for the same reason. Then they automated the crap out of their assembly process such that labor costs were so small that shipping became more of an issue. So guess what? Nike is bringing manufacturing back to the US now, but the manufacturing center will hire a "tiny" number of people compared to what they employed when they were here last.

Automation is HUGE. It's what I do for a living. I once automated a division of 50 people down to 2. The automated system ran much faster and made them more money. That system broke even in 9 months and then added to their bottom line going forward. These were college educated white collar workers. Automation of office staff and happening just as fast as robotics on assembly lines. Here's the kicker. It took me 4 months from initial requirements gathering to go live to do that. I had a part time business analyst on the project and some help from the IT guys setting up the servers, but otherwise it was just me and 4 months of development time to replace 48 people.

Automation has cost China 29 Million jobs over the last 5 years.

Well ok. Both issues are at play and I certainly don't have stats to say one is costing more jobs than another. I am in IT so I am familiar with efficiencies and what you speak of. I have seen politicians touch on 'outsourcing' and 'closing those tax loop holes'. I have heard about closing tax loop holes since the first Clinton election from both candidates. Guess what? 24 years later we still have them. Same w the outsource bit. People get up and live that dream every day as they are told to teach someone their job. And then they are replaced by someone who does a poor job - but the company doesn't care. They look the other way and pretend there is no issue. This is white collar high pay jobs I speak of. I have been lucky to dance around it and make it so the business understands the difference I bring to the table. We'll see how long I can do that for.

So people are angry. And it wasn't anything created by trump. He is pointing it out and claiming he will do something. Others say nothing and claim he is being negative and preying on people's fears. Right... 24 years of closing them tax loop holes. Let's be politically correct and not get people angry and also stay off the record as to our intentions. What effective leadership we've had.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

According to this we've brought back about a quarter million jobs from reshoring.

http://www.reshorenow.org/companies-reshoring/

However the economic impact has been minor. It will take decades of reshoring before we put a dent in our foreign trade deficit.

I gave up on relying on a company to see my value as an employee and became self-employed coming up on 8 years ago. I have been very fortunate to stay flush to overbooked with work for almost all of that 8 year period. There are not enough people who do the work I do to go around which may actually be a good thing for the country and not just me personally.

I think being PC is not a necessarily a bad thing, but all this micro aggression BS is just a bunch of overly sensitive people who need to get over it.

Trump is tapping into something that was already there, but he is also whipping a group of people up and making them feel justified for any prejudice that they feel. He is validating some very bad ideas and behaviors.

 

[timm]

According to this we've brought back about a quarter million jobs from reshoring.

http://www.reshorenow.org/companies-reshoring/

However the economic impact has been minor. It will take decades of reshoring before we put a dent in our foreign trade deficit.

I gave up on relying on a company to see my value as an employee and became self-employed coming up on 8 years ago. I have been very fortunate to stay flush to overbooked with work for almost all of that 8 year period. There are not enough people who do the work I do to go around which may actually be a good thing for the country and not just me personally.

I think being PC is not a necessarily a bad thing, but all this micro aggression BS is just a bunch of overly sensitive people who need to get over it.

Trump is tapping into something that was already there, but he is also whipping a group of people up and making them feel justified for any prejudice that they feel. He is validating some very bad ideas and behaviors.

Mark awesome about going it on your own. I am actually thinking of going the consulting route in the near future. It's really what I do anyway. But it is a balance of risk , career enjoyment, and the so called safety of working at a larger company. I used to do consulting and my rule was if they kept me around for two years they were never getting rid of me unless I chose to go.

I think everyone really agrees more than they disagree about this topic. In the end I think the choice will be Hillary vs The Don. Two polar opposites ... Both have personalities that remind me of nails on a chalkboard. I have yet to hear Hillary speak where it didn't sound prepared and rehearsed. Even her jokes are rehearsed. It always appears like she is saying what somebody tells her to say to get votes. Bernie was right on many levels about her. Then the Don - exaggeration... New Yawk attitude ... Mixed in with billionaire I don't give a shi*. How much do you think the millionaire and the billionaire really care. Only for love of country I would suspect. The thing is trump doesn't need this. So you almost question why he would do it. And I think it is because he is actually angry at our politics - and that boils over. I'm waiting for the hitler doc CNN can play and compare to trump. This election almost defines Hilary's life. I truly wonder why she quit Secretary of State. Didn't they say health reasons? Guessing she's ok to be president though !! I'm guessing Obama gave her a choice - leave or get fired. He hasn't actually jumped on her bandwagon has he.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

Mark awesome about going it on your own. I am actually thinking of going the consulting route in the near future. It's really what I do anyway. But it is a balance of risk , career enjoyment, and the so called safety of working at a larger company. I used to do consulting and my rule was if they kept me around for two years they were never getting rid of me unless I chose to go.

I've never felt like I was safer or more in control of my career than I am now. However it was a combination of quite a few factors that made it work. It took me about 2 months to start building momentum and about 9 months to hit my stride, but I still had a monkey on my back for about 2 years when I finally got comfortable with how things were. I'm also in a rare niche market. I know people who are in other niche markets and who are extremely skilled technically but who will always be marketing for their next job because they don't tend to be long term projects. I've had a number of projects that spanned 2 years and I have customers I still do work for that I've had for 5 years now. Last year I took off a winter break, spring break, 6 weeks during the summer a fall break and had a Christmas vacation. I only work remotely from home. I've only traveled twice on business twice in the last 5 years. It works well for me, but my wife is supportive and there are many other factors that made it a realistic choice for me. Part of that is being willing to take risks and see things through. That doesn't mean it won't be uncomfortable at first. If it is you probably aren't doing it right. The discomfort is a pretty strong motivator.

I'm not a huge fan of Hillary, but I haven't had a candidate I really liked in a long time. I'll vote for her but not because I'm enthralled with her ability to work an audience or generate excitement.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

This a yin and yang thing. Both sides absolutely need to exist to form balance.

Idealism is great but it needs to be tempered with cynicism. We need to consider both humanitarian needs and the bottom line. The hope is that we zig zap along and eventually iterate on what works the best. That requires that both sides be able to contribute ideas and that each side makes compromises.

Demonizing the other side and deciding that nothing good can come from a group with opposing views is not what built this country.

There has to be respect and both side have to work together or the country loses.

Shutting down the government for ideological reasons hurt the country. Spending years trying to repeal Obamacare vs. beating it into shape and improving it has hurt our country. However in the name of rhetoric and talking points out country has stopped working and is completely broken. There are plenty of examples from both parties. Those stick out to me because of personal biases.

For years I've heard, "Why should Congress work together? What the other side is doing is wrong!" Instead of saying that all these people were elected for a reason and they don't all agree because the people of our country don't all agree and maybe there is some basis for the views from both sides and both sides should hammer out legislation that reflects the many interests that make up this country.

Rather than having healthy debate we have something more like a civil war with two sides being forced to co-exist but each side wishing the other didn't exist and if this keeps up we will end up with real rioting and civil unrest on a massive scale.

 

[Gordon Gray]

Demonizing the other side and deciding that nothing good can come from a group with opposing views is not what built this country.

There has to be respect and both side have to work together or the country loses.

Rather than having healthy debate we have something more like a civil war with two sides being forced to co-exist but each side wishing the other didn't exist and if this keeps up we will end up with real rioting and civil unrest on a massive scale.

When all is said and done, that is the issue.

I want to thank everyone who has participated in this thread. You have shown great restraint at hyperbole and have kept this discussion on a very respectful, relevant plain.

GG

 

[stuwee]

I'd like to thank everyone as well, I've learned some things...so thank you folks!!

Most of the runners were in Tucson or near there today, I'm not happy with anything I heard except for Trump, if he does what he says he will, a lot of the many problems we have down here could be erased...could...

The worse was Sanders, who had the GALL to say (in front of the border fence in Nogales Arizona) "we don't need walls or barbed wire, we need to fix the criminal justice system" http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/31518332/sanders-talks-immigration-in-nogales It's really bad for us border states, and it will spread to the rest of you safe in Nebraska, Ohio, Tennesee and Missouri...I'm sorry to sound like a broken record on this issue, I live here in the trenches, in a state that can't afford decent education funds...hell even street repair...because it's being bleed dry.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

The wall as I understand it, already exists in every place where it makes sense to build one. It's likely that Trump will try to take credit for something that was already there.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/16/the-border-wall-donald-trump-wants-mostly-exists/

 

[slowGEEZR]

Mark, I've enjoyed reading your responses in this thread. What is your take on corporate welfare and its effect on our economy and also, what are your thoughts on restoring the tax rate back on the very wealthy to pre-Bush levels?

 

[RCHeliGuy]

Mark, I've enjoyed reading your responses in this thread. What is your take on corporate welfare and its effect on our economy and also, what are your thoughts on restoring the tax rate back on the very wealthy to pre-Bush levels?

When you say corporate welfare, do you mean all the subsides that we give corporations and the military jobs program that builds equipment that the armed forces doesn't even want but that congressmen and Senators want to keep going because their are jobs in their states attached to them.

Personally I don't have a problem with a jobs program, but I wish they were rebuilding our dilapidated infrastructure instead of building weapons that will never be used. I might find some value in the military spending if it were for science and research and development, but just churning out tanks for no reason has no benefit except to the employees of the military complex and there are plenty of other examples of that.

So my wishy washy answer is that if the long term effects of the corporate welfare were useful R&D and helping to rebuild our country than yes, but if it is just lining the pockets of the military complex with ZERO benefit to our country than no.

I'm against the corn to ethanol subsides. They are a big waste, offer no benefit to our country and drive up the cost of corn.


In my tax bracket I'm enjoying some of the lowest US taxes in history right and I guarantee I'm not a job creator.

My tax rate will have to go up. I can't see any way to get around it.

Let's say you have to balance the books and your expenses continue to rise. Meanwhile more of every dollar is going to the top few percent of the country and the less is going to the rest of the country. If you still need to cover your costs and you can't squeeze blood from a rock and get it out of the bottom 95% of the country, that pretty well leaves you with no option but to tax the top 5% more.

I like my toys just like anyone else but I realize that eventually the country is going to become violent and unsafe without some sort of intervention. I consider the government an unwieldy mess right now, but I can't think of any other organization that is capable of doing what needs to be done.

The income in the tax brackets below me is continuing to dwindle and the taxes need to come from somewhere, so I fully expect to end up paying more taxes in the future.

All that said, I also agree with everyone who considers the current government full of corruption, bloat and very inefficient. It's hard to feel good about giving money to an inefficient mess. So while I know I will need to pay more taxes, I really want an overhaul of our government as well. The two need to happen together.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

I saw more about the Wall proposal.

Trump originally said it would cost 4B and then 8B, then 10B, then $12B to build 1000 miles of wall. Realistic estimates put it at closer to $24B for the 35 foot wall he has talked about with maintenance costs being more than that over a 7 year period.

Currently 50% of illegal immigrants drive through the boarder patrol or fly in through an airport with a legal visa or passport. They just don't leave. The wall would have no impact on those people.

 

[timm]

I saw more about the Wall proposal.

Trump originally said it would cost 4B and then 8B, then 10B, then $12B to build 1000 miles of wall. Realistic estimates put it at closer to $24B for the 35 foot wall he has talked about with maintenance costs being more than that over a 7 year period.

Currently 50% of illegal immigrants drive through the boarder patrol or fly in through an airport with a legal visa or passport. They just don't leave. The wall would have no impact on those people.

and the other 50%? I looked at some of the pictures you had.... and the current 'wall' looks kind of rag-tag..... I don't know..... but whatever..... I think this is more symbolic of trying to do something about it.... not just giving amnesty for all people who are indeed breaking our laws.... I am not too close to the issue because I live in Michigan.... but empathize with those where it is a problem.... I think a bigger issue is the drug problem.... and if there would be any benefits making it more difficult for drugs to travel over the border....

I still can't get over TNN - (Trump News Network.... formerly CNN??).... This guy is all they talk about - mostly negative.... but it is non-stop..... This guy is all dems talk about... reps talk about..... and then I saw this 'republican establishment' piece on CNN talking about how they need to stop trump.... It was interesting ... 6 old white guys in suits sitting around a table eating fancy food..... talking about how they need to figure a way to rig the vote so he doesn't get elected.... What happened to people just voting for who they wanted? And these republican 'establishment' guys???? I'm sorry - that is the GOP's issue right there.... 6 rich white guys..... That ship has sailed... and if the GOP has any chance - they need to redefine who they are....because the general population doesn't relate to 6 old white guys eating fancy food.... what a joke... they don't even see the problem... It's THEM!!

 

[Brad225]

Currently 50% of illegal immigrants drive through the boarder patrol or fly in through an airport with a legal visa or passport. They just don't leave. The wall would have no impact on those people.[/QUOTE]

Way to go Mark.

Once Donald reads your comment on illegal's coming in on planes he'll change his plans to build the wall high enough planes can't fly over it. You know how much that will cost us tax payers.

 

[RCHeliGuy]

I think this hits a few critical points too.

http://www.alternet.org/election-20...itical-party-answers-bottom-90-america-crisis

 

[Kevin]

Currently 50% of illegal immigrants drive through the boarder patrol or fly in through an airport with a legal visa or passport. They just don't leave. The wall would have no impact on those people.

The best our government can do is offer an estimate of how many people are crossing the border illegally, it's not like they have to pass through a turnstile on the way in. There is a wide range of estimates, depending upon the source (and probably their own agenda), as to how many are crossing.

There is a huge difference between someone overstaying a visa versus someone crossing the border. That is why the penalty for each is very different. Staying past the expiration date of a visa isn't even considered a criminal offense, instead it is only a civil offense. I would imagine that is due to the checks that someone must go through before being granted a visa. Those checks include, among many others, a criminal record check, a check for communicable diseases, and even a check on the probability that you would require public assistance (welfare). We don't know a single thing about the person who sneaks across the border. However, the number of people who are here currently, having long overstayed their visa, is just another example of the inefficiency of the federal government in my opinion. There should be a greater penalty for staying past the expiration date of a visa.

I would not want a wall. I have a different reason than anyone else I have ever heard or read give an opinion for not wanting it. To me, a wall across the border, from an environmental stand point, is like a dam across a river. Many fish species have been greatly impacted by not being able to swim past dams, especially those that enter rivers and streams to spawn. While a wall across the border may not prevent an animal from breeding, it does greatly impact species whose northern most range barely reach into the US, or southern range crosses into Mexico. For an example, a handful of jaguars cross between Mexico and the US. A wall would effectively end that. While this would not bother the greater majority of people, for someone who loves wildlife and the outdoors like myself, I think it would be a shame.

But if no wall, then what? We had amnesty before, with the promise from congress that it was a 'one' time deal. That border security would be greatly enhanced, and that employment verification would be changed to make sure only legal citizens could be hired. All of these promises were broken. So now we have another call for some sort of legalization of illegal immigrants, because they shouldn't live in the shadows. What other law in the US can you actually be intentionally rewarded for breaking? The two democratic candidates are even wanting them to receive the benefits of Obamacare. We were promised that Obamacare would not be offered to illegal immigrants. When will it stop? If the idea is to just to keep making them legal and offering more reasons why they should jump the border, why even have a border? You are only encouraging more to do the same, and we will be continuously having to do something about the 'shadow' dwellers. Perhaps most importantly, how is encouraging illegal immigration going to help the middle class?

 

[RCHeliGuy]

Canada is the country that needs protection from us!


I irony was that this episode talked about a Trump like person being elected in Canada and a pile of Canadians streaming across the boarder to escape.

Not to be outdone google searches for immigrating to Canada from the US went up 2000% when Trump became more popular.