Fellas... you guys think we're in a recession?

[Rich]

You tell me if we're in a recession, Joey...

I am amazed that someone as sensitive and intelligent as you can even ask such a question with a serious expression on his face.

With a serious expression on my face, I will answer this question. We may be currently in a recession. We may not be yet but are soon probably headed for one. That is the nature of our economy. It is cyclical.

I am compassionate that you have been without a job for awhile, but that in and of itself is no indicator of the National Economy. The National Unemployment rate is at about 5% right now. That ain't bad. Inflation is around 4%, mostly due to energy price rises. Mortgage rates are still dirt cheap.

Gold is not at an all time high, as you say. In inflation adjusted dollars, gold was twice as expensive in 1980 as it is now (and that was right before we had 20+ years of the strongest national economy in our history). By the way, if it was at an all time high, as you say, then it would be a horrible investment. Buying anything at an all time high is never a good investment decision and not something I would be recommending to friends.

Foreclosure rates are up, due in part to predatory lending practices that have been going on for years now. Also due to crazy price appreciation in boom markets over the past few years. Anytime you have a few years of boom markets, you can expect a bust. That is happening right now in Florida and Southern California, and a few other areas.

The Federal Reserve is not a "privately held corporation" as you say, but is actually a Quasi-public banking system (part public / part private). It was created by Congress to act as the central banking system of the United States. It is run by the Board of Governors, which is an Independent Federal Agency. They set the policy and supervise the Federal Reserve Banks, which are part public / part private, and the member banks, which are all private. I am not advocating a position for or against the federal reserve in terms of monetary management; I just believe folks should get their facts straight before preaching a bunch of doomsday hype.

We have had a fairly decent economy for the last few years and I expect that we will have a recession for a few years. That is a common cycle. I do not expect a full blown depression and I find the fear-mongering in Dreamer's post somewhat distasteful. I have heard similar fears raised by others for at least the past 30 years. It never seems to come to pass, despite all the "facts" that they quote which prove that it will. We are a strong nation with a resilient economy. Even the Great Depression, as bad as it was, only lasted ten years. And since then we have had almost 60 years of a strong and growing economy, with a few boom years and a few recessions as part of the cyclical nature of it all.

I am not trying to say that some folks don't have it bad, and that some areas of the country aren't worse off than others. What I am saying is that as a nation, on a historical basis, we aren't doing too bad and we aren't headed toward any kind of doomsday collapse.

 

[TheBobGoat]

George. I agree with some of that article - the increase has not been as bad in some of those places. But the reality is there is still an increase. We are just feeling it worse here than in those places.

Exchange rates are funny because there is always room for arbitrage. Sometimes things are cheaper when I buy them in euros or kd or even pounds. Most of the time now though, it is cheaper in dollars!

 

[TheBobGoat]

Rich - here are some stats on the mortgage delinquencies

On Jan. 9, Countrywide Financial (CFC, news, msgs) reported that the foreclosure rate on its 9 million mortgages had climbed to 1.44% in December, double the 0.7% rate of December 2006. The delinquency rate had climbed to 7.2% of unpaid balances, up from 4.6% in December 2006. The rates were the highest ever for Countrywide, which entered the mortgage business in 2002.

and this about credit cards

American Express (AXP, news, msgs) announced that credit card debt at least 30 days past due had climbed to 3.2% of its portfolio from 2.9% in the third quarter, and write-offs of bad debt had climbed to 4.3% from 3.7% in the same period. In 2008, American Express expects write-offs to average 5.1% to 5.3%.

 

[HsvToolFool]

A "recession" is defined as two or more consecutive quarters
with decining Gross Domestic Product.

Since Q1 2000, the US has experienced an average growth
in GDP each year of about 2.4%. There were three quarters
of decline after the dot-com bubble, none of them
consecutive...

http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls

The US has enjoyed near-constant economic growth since
about 1983, so we now take such things for granted.

Personally, I'm amazed there's been any growth given the
number of economic disasters during the 2000s: the dot-com
bust, Enron/Arthur Anderson/WorldCom, 9-11, the
Afghan/Iraq campaigns, airline bankruptcies, plus
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

 

[kach22i]

Personally, I'm amazed there's been any growth given the
number of economic disasters during the 2000s: the dot-com
bust, Enron/Arthur Anderson/WorldCom, 9-11, the
Afghan/Iraq campaigns, airline bankruptcies, plus
Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

And after each tragic event the govenment quietly reassess how it counts the data so that it's no longer apples to apples.

It's not how many beans you have, it's how you count them and which ones you include.

Gotta save face and keep spirits up, it's all an illusion and a matter of perspective.

 

[HsvToolFool]

And after each tragic event the govenment quietly reassess how it counts the data so that it's no longer apples to apples.

Without proof, such arguments are pointless. It discounts
all standards so that we're left with subjective anecdotes
as basis for our judgements.

Gotta save face and keep spirits up, it's all an illusion and a matter of perspective.

It's a surprise to no one that politicians are optimistic,
sunny, cheerleaders regarding their policies while the
opposition party is constantly negative. It's actually part
of their job descriptions.

I'm more offended by how extreme the left-wing bias has
grown in mainstream media outlets like AP, Reuters,
NYTimes, LATimes, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC,
NPR, Google, Yahoo, etc. It's been there since the days of
Cronkite, but it's reached ludicrous levels. There lies your
purveyors of illusion and perspective.

 

[slowGEEZR]

I'm more offended by how extreme the left-wing bias has
grown in mainstream media outlets like AP, Reuters,
NYTimes, LATimes, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC,
NPR, Google, Yahoo, etc. It's been there since the days of
Cronkite, but it's reached ludicrous levels. There lies your
purveyors of illusion and perspective.

Ha ha, I'm more offended by the extreme right-wing biases I see. Actually, the extremes on both sides are liars all.

 

[risabet]

I'm more offended by how extreme the left-wing bias has
grown in mainstream media outlets like AP, Reuters,
NY Times, LA Times, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC,
NPR, Google, Yahoo, etc. It's been there since the days of
Cronkite, but it's reached ludicrous levels. There lies your
purveyors of illusion and perspective.

The right-wing has told this lie so often that some actually believe it:devil: In fact the media is controlled by right-wing sycophants who pander to an administration that lies to its citizens, covers up and attempts to protect criminal corporate behavior and continues to participate in the "politics of fear" at a level unknown in US history. Left-wing bias , MY A$$!

 

[kcl]

The right-wing has told this lie so often that some actually believe it:devil: In fact the media is controlled by right-wing sycophants who pander to an administration that lies to its citizens, covers up and attempts to protect criminal corporate behavior and continues to participate in the "politics of fear" at a level unknown in US history. Left-wing bias , MY A$$!

What I find bizarre (in a pretty terrible way, actually) is that I agree with most everything you've said, except that I'd swap right-wing and left-wing. I'm sure you're going to shake your head amazed and baffled that I can think this, in the same way I shook mine at your statement. There's this huge, equal segment of our population (about 35% vs 35%) that are massively polarized to conservative or liberal. I'm 61 years old, and I don't ever remember the level of vehemence and vitriol that exists within the current political environment.

 

[Joey_V]

You tell me if we're in a recession, Joey...

I am amazed that someone as sensitive and intelligent as you can even ask such a question with a serious expression on his face. I'm actually sort of sorry for you, because you must be terribly insulated from the majority of American's by the wealth of your family to even entertain such a question.

I know you meant no personal attack, but be mindful that this was posted as a thread to stimulate some conversation amongst friends. I wanted to get people's ideas of where we stand and that's exactly what I got from this thread. I am not cogniscent of much of the economy as I specialize in only one part of the system - much as you probably would not be as cogniscent in my field as you are in yours.

The beauty about a forum is that we can all bounce ideas and experiences off of each other and this thread is exactly that - an amalgam of several takes on our economy.

But Richard, don't belittle me. You want to call me insulated? Perhaps this is a testament to how difficult medical school is. I don't have TV nor do I have time to watch the news... I sometimes come home on the weekends only to find that something just happened in Pakistan. I am insulated... and the reason for that is so I can better treat you when you come bleeding to the ER.

 

[risabet]

What I find bizarre (in a pretty terrible way, actually) is that I agree with most everything you've said, except that I'd swap right-wing and left-wing. I'm sure you're going to shake your head amazed and baffled that I can think this, in the same way I shook mine at your statement. There's this huge, equal segment of our population (about 35% vs 35%) that are massively polarized to conservative or liberal. I'm 61 years old, and I don't ever remember the level of vehemence and vitriol that exists within the current political environment.

What I find interesting is that for a left-wing media so many stories that show the right for what it is have been ignored. The pardon of Scooter got about 10 minutes of scrutiny, lying during the run-up to the war maybe a half-an-hour, Bush's war record (actually lack of same) got Dan Rather pilloried while facts were suppressed. We can't get a decent story about waterboarding, which unless you are the Marquis de Sade is clearly, by any definition, torture. The Abu Ghraib story was hot for awhile but no senior members were brought to justice. We've had eight years of lies and not an iota of press coverage in depth. In return the administration has backed media deregulation at the cost of fair and open coverage, access to alternative media and cuts in PBS and NPR funding. All the while who benefits? The left-wing corporations, NOT.

At least the administration has stopped questioning the loyalty of anyone who challenges their position on anything, though no one in the press outside of NPR's Daniel Shore (to my knowledge) took them to task for such an un-American position.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist but one has to look at the behavior of an intersection of a neo-conservative administration and the lack of press investigation and reporting and seriously question the conservative lament about the "left-wing media." The true progressive media, Random Lengths (San Pedro, Ca), Mother Jones (National) and other print media and some individual shows such as Bill Maher, John Stewart and The Colbert Report have had a field day with the crazy behavior of this cabal, but the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post and all the other major print and radio media outlets have swallowed their whistles, so to speak. These same left-wing media outlets made a career out of reporting on Whitewater, and whether the president got a ******* in the Oval Office. One has to wonder!

 

[kach22i]

Without proof, such arguments are pointless. It discounts
all standards so that we're left with subjective anecdotes
as basis for our judgements.

If you are informed then you would know of the changes of which I speak. From experience I know full well that any links I may provide will go unclicked, and any quotes disregarded and the source of such evidence would be discounted even if they came straight from the GOA or Fox News. The facts are out there, if you don't have them by now, no leading you to the water will make you drink. I can only type so much, I cannot open a closed mind, or a closed heart.

risabet, nice writting style. I often wish I had the patience and skills of people like you.

 

[kcl]

If you are informed then you would know of the changes of which I speak. From experience I know full well that any links I may provide will go unclicked, and any quotes disregarded and the source of such evidence would be discounted even if they came straight from the GOA or Fox News. The facts are out there, if you don't have them by now, no leading you to the water will make you drink. I can only type so much, I cannot open a closed mind, or a closed heart...

Like I said, each side has these exact same feelings about the other.

 

[TheBobGoat]

But Richard, don't belittle me. You want to call me insulated? Perhaps this is a testament to how difficult medical school is. I don't have TV nor do I have time to watch the news... I sometimes come home on the weekends only to find that something just happened in Pakistan. I am insulated... and the reason for that is so I can better treat you when you come bleeding to the ER.

You just need to get a TV Tuner card for your computer Joey.

But seriously, unless you are in a capsule underground somewhere there is always time for watching the news/posting on MLOC (no matter what you do!)

Anyway it is Friday night - time for everyone to relax and have a drink.

 

[twich54]

Anyway it is Friday night - time for everyone to relax and have a drink.

I'll drink to that !!! oh hell I already have, several times !!

 

[Joey_V]

You just need to get a TV Tuner card for your computer Joey.

But seriously, unless you are in a capsule underground somewhere there is always time for watching the news/posting on MLOC (no matter what you do!)

Anyway it is Friday night - time for everyone to relax and have a drink.

Got the TV tuner, but no cable due to Comcast being tyrannical with their non-intro pricing. I could follow the news via internet, but I haven't gone too deep with it.

I'm not saying I live in a capsule, but if I don't diligently follow the news plus add to that the fact that I have much less life experience than most anyone on this site (heck, the last job I held was as a seafood boy at Jewel supermarket)... I really don't have the insight to the economy that most here have. I have a general idea of it, but it's nice to read what others have to say about it on this thread.

You'd be surprised how little free time I have at the end of the day. Why do you think I post here at 3am most of the time?

 

[Rich]

You'd be surprised how little free time I have at the end of the day. Why do you think I post here at 3am most of the time?

I'm not surprised. I went to Law School and know how all-consuming it is. I imagine Med School is even worse.

Don't feel bad about being a little insulated or about being young. Both are good things. You really begin to learn about the economy and politics and how things work in your thirties and forties, I think. This is a great thread that has engendered some good discussion and I'm glad you started it.

I find it interesting that a thread such as this discussing economic cycles so quickly turned to discussing politics. The truth is that the economy is not so tied to politics as everyone believes. It continues on regular cycles through various administrations and political ideologies. Sure, it can be affected in the short term and even in the longer term by political decisions. But in many ways, the economy transcends politics. It outlasts presidential administrations and lifelong congressional terms and it continues in endless cycles of boom and bust.

The true threat to the economy is not the tax and spend policies of the liberals or the rape and pillage policies of the conservatives (both of which have been going on for a long time without a dent in our economic vitality). No, the true threat is the fact that our government is completely broken. We no longer have a true democracy, where the elected representatives are there to serve the people. We now have a government that is completely bought and sold and controlled by special interest groups and corporations. This applies to both democrats and republicans and it is what may ultimately lead to our downfall as a Nation. O.K., I'll just hop off my little soapbox now.

 

[Joey_V]

I'm not surprised. I went to Law School and know how all-consuming it is. I imagine Med School is even worse.

Don't feel bad about being a little insulated or about being young. Both are good things. You really begin to learn about the economy and politics and how things work in your thirties and forties, I think. This is a great thread that has engendered some good discussion and I'm glad you started it.

Thanks Rich... I agree with all you have said. I'm assuming it comes with experience and time unless one's an econ major straight out of college. I'm glad I started this thread, now I know more about the economy and people's varied perceptions of the current happenings than I did prior.

 

[C.A.P]

Thanks Rich... I agree with all you have said. I'm assuming it comes with experience and time unless one's an econ major straight out of college. I'm glad I started this thread, now I know more about the economy and people's varied perceptions of the current happenings than I did prior.

You were brave starting this thred Joey Politics and religion are touchy subjects and can bring out a side in a person you never knew existed ! That is why I try and avoid both !

 

[Joey_V]

You were brave starting this thred Joey Politics and religion are touchy subjects and can bring out a side in a person you never knew existed ! That is why I try and avoid both !

I know these are touchy subjects, but I wanted input from others of a different point of view than mine. How else am I (or we) to learn what others make of what goes on today?

This is a forum, this is what we do and this is why we return here and participate, post, lurk. We are a family of sorts and I'm just glad I'm given the opportunity to participate with you folks.